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But comparing the two gives us at least some sense of when gerrymandering might be having a big impact and when it might not, so here are the House vote/seats differentials for the Democrats since 1946, courtesy of the Vital Statistics on Congress database maintained by the Brookings Institution:įor decades, then, Democrats got a much higher share of House seats than their share of the popular vote.
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There’s no reason these percentages should be perfectly equal, and it’s not always the fault of gerrymandering when they diverge widely. That popular-vote share is expected to rise by another percentage point or two as more votes are counted, so let’s just say the Democratic popular-vote percentage will be roughly equal to the party’s share of House seats. Nationwide, though, Democrats had 51.5 percent of the House votes counted when last I checked, and they seem likely to win at least 230 of 435 House seats, or 52.9 percent. Even after a successful election in which the party won back control of the House of Representatives for the first time in eight years, one can still find people grumbling about it.Īnd sure, it is possible to find evidence of gerrymandering - the drawing of legislative districts to favor one party over another - in Tuesday’s election results. In North Carolina, where the congressional map concocted by Republican state lawmakers after the 2010 Census was ruled unconstitutional by a federal court in August but allowed to stay in place for this election, Democrats got 48.3 percent of the House vote on Tuesday yet won only three of the state’s 13 House seats. (Bloomberg Opinion) - Gerrymandering has over the past few years become something of an all-purpose boogeyman for Democrats frustrated with the way the political winds are blowing.